Can the Bucks Surpass Their Preseason Wins Projections?

Can the Bucks Surpass Their Preseason Wins Projections?
Fact Checked by Pat McLoone

The Milwaukee Bucks have had a busy end to their offseason. They landed superstar guard Damian Lillard from the Portland Trail Blazers in a blockbuster deal in which they parted with defensive linchpin Jrue Holiday. That’s plenty to consider for customers in position to take part in Wisconsin sports betting.

The addition of Lillard must be seen as a positive, but losing the defensive impacts that Holiday brought to the court will be something the team has to address. It also makes it hard to predict just how well they will do this season. The team won a league-best 58 games last season but flamed out in the first round of the playoffs.

Instead of trying to come up with our own predictions on how many wins the Bucks will have this year, BetWisconsin.com decided to utilize historical data from SportsOddsHistory.com to see how the team has fared compared to its preseason wins total predicted by oddsmakers since 2010-11. We then used that information to deduce whether Milwaukee has a good chance at meeting this year’s preseason win total, which currently sits at 53.5.

How Bucks Finished Compared to Preseason Win Total

SeasonPreseason Win TotalFinal Record/Result
2022-2353.558-24, Over
2021-2254.551-31, Under
2020-2149.546-36, Under
2018-194860-22, Over
2017-1847.544-38, Under
2016-1734.542-40, Over
2015-1642.533-49, Under
2014-1524.541-41, Over
2013-1428.515-67, Under
2012-1336.538-44, Over
2011-1231.531-35, Under
2010-1145.535-47, Under

 

What’s in Store for Bucks This Season?

Looking at the history of the team shows fans that the Bucks are slightly more likely to come up short of their preseason win total, as they have only gone over the number in five of 12 measured seasons. When projected to have a record over .500, which is the case this year, they have only gone over the projected total in two of seven opportunities.

With the preseason win total sitting slightly under last season's number of wins, it appears that oddsmakers expect the Bucks to take a slight step backwards in the regular season. Generally, this would be cause for concern, but with such a high win total last year a slight downtick still would mean a successful regular season. Most fans would happily trade in a few regular season wins if it means more playoff success. So would Lillard and star forward Giannis Antetokounmpo.

FanDuel Sportsbook Wisconsin currently has the Bucks at +380 co-favorites with the Boston Celtics to win the NBA title. The addition of Lillard and hitting or coming close to their preseason win total of 53.5 would set the Bucks up very well for a strong playoff run. History shows that it can be done, but a regular season with slightly less than 53 wins seems to be the most likely outcome.

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Author

Cecil Peters

Cecil Peters is a Senior Betting Analyst for BetWisconsin.com. A professional sports bettor in Canada, Cecil specializes in analyzing the latest odds impacting professional sports, particularly MLB and the NHL. He will be providing insight throughout the baseball season.