Packers vs Bears Odds: Who Is Favored To Win This NFC North Rivalry

Packers vs Bears Odds: Who Is Favored To Win?

The Packers are favored to win against the Bears by three points.

Coming into the season, the Bears were favored in Week 1 vs. the Packers by one point. That matchup ended up being an 18-point victory for the Packers.

Latest Packers Bears Odds, Updates, & News

• 📅 Dec. 31: The Bears are eliminated from playoff contention.
• 📅 Dec. 27: The Packers suspend Jaire Alexander for one game after he crashed the team's coin toss vs. Carolina.
• 📅 Dec. 23: The Bears sign kicker Cairo Santos to a four-year, $16M contract extension.
• 📅 Dec. 13: Bears DE Yannick Ngakoue is placed on IR with a broken ankle.
• 📅 Dec. 11: Packers RB AJ Dillon suffers a broken thumb vs. the Giants.
• 📅 Nov. 22: Packers Rookie TE Luke Musgrave is placed on IR with a lacerated kidney.
• 📅 Nov. 4: Sweat agrees to a four-year contract extension worth $98M with $72.9M guaranteed.
• 📅 Oct. 31: The Bears acquire defensive end Montez Sweat from the Commanders for a second-round 2024 draft pick. Packers CB Rasul Douglas is traded to the Buffalo Bills.
• 📅 Oct. 30: Packers LB Rashan Gary signs a four-year, $107M contract extension with the Packers.
• 📅 Oct. 15: Bears QB Justin Fields suffers a dislocated thumb.
• 📅 Sept. 28: Packers OL David Bakhtiari is placed on injured reserve and he'll miss the rest of the 2023 season.
• 📆 Sept. 20: Chicago defensive coordinator Alan Williams resigns due to "personal issues" that the team later revealed to be related to inappropriate activity on the job. Head coach Matt Eberflus takes over defensive play-calling duties.
• 📅 Aug. 5: The Bears sign former Packers tight end Marcedes Lewis.
• 📅️ May 3: QB Jordan Love signs a one-year contract extension through 2024.
• 📅 April 27: Green Bay selects Iowa defensive end Lukas Van Ness, and the Bears select Tennessee T Darnell Wright in the first round of the 2023 NFL Draft.
• 📅 April 24: Green Bay trades Aaron Rodgers to the Jets over a month after Rodgers stated he wanted to be traded to New York.
• 📆 March 15: The Bears acquire multiple draft picks and WR DJ Moore from the Carolina Panthers in exchange for the No. 1 overall pick. The Bears sign DL DeMarcus Walker and LB Tremaine Edmunds. 

Packers Bears Spread: What The Spread Tells Us

The Packers are favored by three points on the spread. That means oddsmakers are predicting the game will be relatively close but that Green Bay will win by more than a field goal.

Neither team was particularly good against the spread in 2022, but the Packers faired far better than the Bears. The Packers were 8-9 against the spread, while the Bears were only 5-11-1. The Packers were also 2-0 against the spread vs. Chicago in 2022.

Packers Bears Line: What The Moneyline Tells Us

The moneyline tells us the Packers are favored to win. The Packers -162 moneyline gives them a 61.8% implied probability to win.

Green Bay has won their last nine matchups against the Bears dating back to 2019—and it doesn't seem to matter who's at QB or where they game is played. This matchup, however, gives the Packers home-field advantage.

Green Bay Packers Chances To Win vs Chicago Bears

The Packers have a very simple task in this game: win and they're in the playoffs. If they lose, their playoff chances drop to btween 15% (NFL.com) and 24% (New York Times). In that case, they'd need some help from other teams around the league, namely wins from the Lions, Falcons or Panthers, and Cardinals. I can imagine Matt LaFleur and Co. want to avoid that scenario and just beat Chicago outright—which they certainly are well-positioned to do.

Both these teams went into 2023 as heavy unknowns, and their expectations shifted several times over during the season. The Packers moved on from Aaron Rodgers (self-proclaimed "owner" of the Chicago Bears) and have transitioned to first-year starter Jordan Love, who was declared "The Guy" in Green Bay probably as many times as he was labeled a bust. The Bears were the worst team in football in 2023, stacked their team around QB Justin Fields, became laughing stocks in 2024, and then stayed in the playoff hunt all the way until Week 17.

How The Packers Win vs Bears

The last time these teams met, the Packers massively outscored the Bears, thanks to a 127-yard, two-touchdown performance from RB Aaron Jones. He'll need to have a big game to get the Packers into the playoffs. In the 2023 season, the Packers have been average 111.3 rushing yards per game.

The Packers will also need to get another clean game from QB Jordan Love with no turnovers. In Week 1, he threw three touchdowns and no interceptions.

The Packers rank 11th in average points per game (22.9) this season, and they'll need to keep that momentum against the Bears. Chicago has been known eke out some sneaky late-game wins against teams that took their foot of the gas (ahem, Lions).

On defense, the Packers may have a mismatch. They allow the 11th-fewest passing yards per game (212.4), and they're going up against a Chicago O-line that has allowed 39 sacks on Justin Fields, tied for fifth-highest in the NFL.

• 📈 Strength: Run game, forcing Fields into poor decisions, pass defense
• 📉 Weakness: Run defense

How The Bears Win vs Packers

The Bears have performed very well against the run in 2023, allowing the fewest rushing yards per game of any team. That could prove to be a challenge for Jones, who had a monster game against Chicago in Week 1. 

On offense, QB Justin Fields needs to take care of the ball. In the team's four-game losing streak to open the season, he threw 5 interceptions. Since then, he's only thrown four total in eight games. The Packers are tied for fourth-most fumble takeaways this season (11), and Fields has 10 fumbles already. However, this time around, he doesn't have to the throw the ball against Rasul Douglas, who recovered one fumble in Week 1 but has since been traded.

One thing the Bears did not have against the Packers last time? Pro Bowler Montez Sweat, who the Bears traded for at the deadline. He's 10th in the league in sacks (12.5), and I'm fascinated to see how he matches up against a surprisingly effective Packers O-line.

• 📈 Strength: Justin Fields' playmaking, run defense
• 📉 Weakness: Struggle to stop Aaron Jones

Packers Bears Prop Bets

It should be a fun matchup for both player and team prop bets. In a game with so many unknowns, you can find some real value.

Packers Bears Player Props

Here are some fun prop bets for Sunday's game:

Packers Bears Team Props

🏆 MORE: Packers Super Bowl Odds

History of Green Bay Packers vs Chicago Bears Games

Packers-Bears is the NFL's longest lasting rivalry as they've played 206 times with the Packers leading the all-time series 106-95-6. The rivalry dates back to Nov. 27, 1921, when the then-Chicago Staleys defeated the Green Bay Packers, 20-0.

The Packers and Bears have the first and second-most wins in NFL history. The Packers lead way with 790, while the Bears are second with 786.

Packers Record vs Bears

The Packers are 105-95-6 all-time against the Bears and boast a current 8-game winning streak against Chicago. The Packers have also won 23 of the last 26 matchups. 

Aaron Rodgers, who has dominated the Bears in his career, had a 24-5 record against Chicago. With Rodgers now in New York, the Bears will have a new-found level of confidence going against first-year starter Jordan Love.

All-Time Best Green Bay Packers Chicago Bears Games

The Packers and Bears have had some all-time great matchups in their storied rivalry, but there are three high-stakes matchups that stand out.

Divisional Playoffs (Dec. 14, 1941)

Just seven days after the attacks on Pearl Harbor, the Packers and Bears faced off for the right to go to the NFL Championship Game against the New York Giants. The game featured two 10-1 teams with two legendary coaches (Curly Lambeau and George Halas). The Bears would win 33-14 and head to the championship.

2010 NFC Championship Game (Jan. 23, 2011)

The stakes don't get any higher than a Super Bowl berth on the line. It was Jay Cutler and the Bears vs. Aaron Rodgers and the Packers. Cutler would end up getting hurt in the game and a B.J. Raji pick-six would propel the Packers to the Super Bowl, where they would defeat the Pittsburgh Steelers.

Week 17, 2013 (Dec. 29)

It was the final week of the regular season, and the NFC North title was on the line. The Bears led 28-27 with only 46 seconds to go. The Packers faced fourth-and-8 from Chicago's 48-yard line. Packers fullback John Kuhn would get just enough of Julius Peppers as Aaron Rodgers rolled to his left and found a wide-open Randall Cobb for a 48-yard touchdown to give the Packers the win and the NFC North title.

Author

Shannon Lane

@shannonlanenfl

Shannon Lane is a commercial editor for Gambling.com Group and fact-checker for BetWisconsin.com. She's spent the last decade working in sports media, including at NFL Media in digital content programming and strategy, and as a reporter and fact-checker at Sports Illustrated. She graduated from Northwestern University with a concentration in journalism where she covered football, lacrosse, basketball and volleyball.